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In other agricultural activities with which I am familiar, prices are erratic immediately following a disaster. Some produce is dumped for cash, others hold back what they have hoping for higher prices. After a few weeks, prices climb for quality produce, but may decline overall due to large quantities of lower quality filling the volume void. Then it depends on whether the disaster affects the next year's crop or is limited to a single season. When capacity is reduced, the volume void is filled by lower quality, with price increases moderated by imports. Where imports are materially higher in price, or not available, there is a significant price increase. This often leads to those expanding to re-create the capacity they lost to over-expand. Long term price reductions can follow as producer profit margins are squeezed by the competition.
As to koi, I've noticed that most of the dealers whose sites I visit do not have the quantity/quality of recent years, are not updating their sites as frequently as in the past, and have not used the marketing gimmicks used over the past couple of years. This makes me think they do not have the inventory levels of recent years. I think they are waiting for the snows to melt in the hope of finding more in Spring, and meanwhile are getting what they can from other areas, but that is not so easy when pre-existing relationships are few and the quality made available to them is less than their customers have come to expect.
Speculation on my part: Since there is a huge price gap between the low volume high quality koi and the large volume medium quality, and the endless volume of low quality, and the loss of mud pond/greenhouse capacity cannot be replaced quickly, I expect there will be substantial price increases for the highest quality koi for the next few years, but that medium quality will not rise too much because the number of tosai worth growing to nisai can be rationalized. Marginal ones can be kept that in other times would be dumped. A number of growers will likely stock ponds more heavily to get volume up, although some reduction in size will follow. The price differential between a 13" nisai and a 14" one is not very great, but pond production volume can be quite a bit greater ... a factor to be given weight in a time of relative shortage when a need exists to increase revenue to fund infrastructure replacement. As to low quality koi, there are always more than there is demand. Pricing reflects cost of harvesting and delivery more than value of the product ... better to sell than to trash them. Facilities in other areas that have the capacity to produce larger volumes of medium quality will do so to meet demand, but they cannot increase the highest quality production. They already produce as much of the highest quality as they can.
I believe the greatest long term risk to the Niigata koi farmers comes from southern Japan. If the farms there use their temporary market position to increase capacity, they will be in position after the recovery to gain a permanent share of the market, especially if they use this window of opportunity to build relationships with foreign dealers in need of inventory. This can lead to a permanent increase in production capacity greater than market demand. The losers in that situation will be those with the highest production costs, which is typically the producers who have incurred debt to re-build and those with less efficient operations. The mountain operations are inherently less efficient due to the distances involved.
After the shake-out, I'd expect to see marginal koi farmers in the mountains eliminated from the business, with those having desirable niches in the best position to survive and be stronger ... such as those with ponds considered particularly desirable for growing out higher quality koi, with strong market names that maintain high-end customer loyalty (Torazo, Isa, etc). From the hobbyist point of view, a one or two year period of reduced volume of the highest quality, followed by apparent "normalcy" characterized by a new familiarity with koi breeders not in Niigata.
....just my speculation.
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