Well, I guess I'm kinda talking to the wall here so I'll give up but before I go, let me try one more time- cause I'm stubborn----
A koi show is NOT just a competition. It is an exhibition and a learning experience. The big fish has a definite place, for the learning experience and to capture the imagination of the public ( who are ALWAYS blown away by the big fish) .
Any one who thinks it is possible for a home grown one year old to mature in a backyard pond and win GC in a major western show hasn't been to many koi shows??!! The fish that win koi shows are the top of the genetic pile. They are therefore not sold off so easily by the breeder. Koi Breeders in Japan come in many different levels- like musicians, they can be liked to high school band members right up to Carnegie hall professionals. The super star breeders KNOW their koi and don’t sell off the creme de la creme so easily! They hold them because they know that they will get many more yen when the time is right TO sell them. The exception to this rule is--- IF you are willing to pay for what it WILL be before it gets there- The breeder will part with the prospect. Because then the buyer is taking the risk of that educated gamble. It is not unusual to see tosai sell for $10,000 in such a case.
So buying tosai and expecting to see them go to 36 inches and have the body and sheen of a hot Hiroshima 6 year old is kinda like buying cracker jacks expecting to find a diamond ring at the bottom of the box!
If you do want to try and out think, out grow and out finish a master breeder , at least concentrate on buying his three year olds. That way, you get further along, have the benefit of the wonder bread years being spent in mud ponds and if you are very lucking and skilled, you may have a shot in some shows.