Well, JR, I guess I disagree to a limited extent. I agree with the basics of your post, but think there is a role played by allelopathy which is just as natural as nitrifiers colonizing available surfaces. In a two year study of phytoplanktonic growth in 6 Spanish ponds (natural ponds, not koi ponds), L. Serrano and C. Guisande reported in the International Journal Limnology (1990) in an article "Effects of Polyphenolic Compounds on Phytoplankton", that the natural phenol concentration in the water varied between 4 mg/l and 26 mg/l primarily in relation to seasonal flooding of the ponds. When phenol concentrations were above 10 mg/l there was little algal growth. When phenol concentrations were low, phytoplankton thrived. Typically the release of phenols bt healthy, living plants would be quite small, but a number of studies have found that there is a considerable storage of phenols and other alelochemicals in plant tissues, which are rapidly released when a plant dies and decomposition sets in. For example, A. Otsuki & R.G. Wetzel, 19 Limnol. Oceanog. 842-845 (1974), "Release of Dissolved Organic Matter By Autolysis of A Submersed Macrophyte, Scirpus subterminalis". The Serrano & Guisande report was supported in the same journal in a 1993 study authored by B. Kim and R.G. Wetzel, "The Effect of Dissolved Humic Substances on The Alkaline Phosphatase and the Growth of Microalgae". Kim & Wetzel found that a 10 mg/l concentration of aquatic plant phenols was inhibitory to the growth of some (not all) species of algae and cyanobacteria.
It is known that algae are more actively releasing the chemicals they produce than other plants due to the cell structure being so open to the water. In a study from 30 years ago, K. Keating, "Allelopathic Influence on Blue-Green Bloom Sequence in a Eutrophic Lake" [Science] followed algae blooms over a 3 year period in a polluted pond. The sequence of algae blooms was related to water-borne inhibitors. It appeared the dominant algae released substances into the water (allelochemicals)which inhibited the predecessor algae ...and the possibility was suggested that the same chemical barrage may stimulate other algae.
Running much too long.... When thinking of seasonal shifts in the algae population of a pond, consider that seasonal triggers, such as temperature rise, are operating at several levels at once. And, that the volume of pond water being filtered through the cell walls of the algal community over the course of a day is going to be very substantial. ...Which do you suspect is the greater... the dry weight of the bacterial colony or the dry weight of the algal community?