Doitsu Lemon Kumonryu- Rare?

[JasPR]

Let's say that I bred this fish after three years of effort breeding koi. This was one that really caught my eye as it was like an asagi but white! I hoped to be the first one on the planet to make a white asagi and this would be my foundation breeder. To me it is beautiful because of what it represents and I can just see the fabled white asagi in this fish. What would you value this fish at??
JR

[mitten]

Maybe Dennis?

Sorry JR, just baffled about IDs.

White asagi?? You nuts, man? Asagi are blue.

[lildude]

Quote: Originally Posted by JasPR Let's say that I bred this fish after three years of effort breeding koi. This was one that really caught my eye as it was like an asagi but white! I hoped to be the first one on the planet to make a white asagi and this would be my foundation breeder. To me it is beautiful because of what it represents and I can just see the fabled white asagi in this fish. What would you value this fish at?? JR

See one could actually probably make a white asagi, and so forth, red asagi, yellow asagi.

it just takes determination

[JasPR]

OK, I'm patient.
Koi were first bred from mutations arising from a gene pool of carp races. The fundamental color was based in black. But a white mutation gene ( spreading) produced many possibilities. The orientation of color was partly random and partly man manipulated but basically fell into three types ( some being more naturally found and some being more hard work by breeders). The fourth type came along with the introduction of the last carp race introduced- the doitsu carp. SO at this point we had a black fish, a white fish and the many shades produced by white and black interplay on mutated colors such as red/orange. The patterns have not really changed since then, they have only been refined. Solid, dorsal, lateral and wrapped.
The appearance ( concentration really) of ginrin scales and metallic skin was simply introduced into all the existing varieties to that point- so black fish and white fish and all mutations along with solid, dorsal, lateral and wrapped patterns got — metallic versions and ginrin versions.
The use of dilute genes and mutation patterns such as kanoko pretty much rounded out all possibilities.
This is the modern gene pool and the basis for all serious breeding programs to date.
JR

[JasPR]

Just trying to show John that 'beauty' may be 'in the eye of the beholder' in some things- but in koi, we have certain esthetics pretty well established regarding such things. And the standards reflect that esthetics- and the price follows as show fish are rated of greater value that personal favorites.

JR

[cppond]

The ZNA sets the standards for type, but the free market sets the value. They are not necessarily the same thing. Many people buy what they like, not what they are "supposed" to like. That is why longfins have become a significant part of the ornamental fish market despite ZNA standards, not because of them.

[lildude]

Quote: Originally Posted by cppond The ZNA sets the standards for type, but the free market sets the value. They are not necessarily the same thing. Many people buy what they like, not what they are "supposed" to like. That is why longfins have become a significant part of the ornamental fish market despite ZNA standards, not because of them.

yes, that is very true, and one day I think butterfly koi may have a show to themselves, but It is hard for me to think that Longfins will be viewed as higher or even equal to standard fin koi in japan.

[John F]

Quote: Originally Posted by JasPR Let's say that I bred this fish after three years of effort breeding koi. This was one that really caught my eye as it was like an asagi but white! I hoped to be the first one on the planet to make a white asagi and this would be my foundation breeder. To me it is beautiful because of what it represents and I can just see the fabled white asagi in this fish. What would you value this fish at?? JR

I get your point for sure. The problem I have is you value fish from an unrealistic and one-sided standpoint IMHO. A fish, any fish has a certain minimum value based on market price, timing, demand, and most importantly the costs that go into producing that fish. Period! Business 101. This is where it gets complicated when the business value and the market/artistic value meet.

That fish you speak of above is a great example. To the breeder that fish could be priceless with certain considerations. Timing is everything. At that point in time, if that is the closest fish he has towards his goal he would be foolish to sell it at all if he wanted to continue his quest. So, at that point the fish will be more valuable (to the breeder) because it is the closest thing he has towards his goal at the time. This is where market price has little to do with value. So, this means if someone wanted to purchase it at that time, they would most likely pay what it is worth to the breeder, and market value would not even be considered. Now at some point in time, he may have a better one, and it is at this point the value of the first fish will fall, and so on and so on up the line until he reaches his goal. This holds true with ALL Koi. As time goes on the value of an individual fish may drop due to improvements in the overall breeding of that particular variety. Look at any high end fish in any variety today, and compare it to one s produced 20 years ago. Big differences. I don't agree with your 70 year analogy. From a scientific geniology standpoint you may be correct I don't know, but from an aesthestics standpoint you are way off.

I disagree with these "restaurant ctritic" critiques and value assessments . I have always had issues with folks that claim to be the experts from books, and have little to no practical experience, but yet somehow end up critiqing the folks on the forefront and in the trenches. They have no place doing value assessments. Most critics either failed at the business, or have had very little hands on experience with that business.

No doubt you are one of the most intelligent folks I am aware of in the industry for sure, and I can tell you do a LOT of reading. Yes, and talking over the years with all those Japanese breeders will enhance this further, but I am afraid it is not the same as actually doing it. As a business, as an art, and as a life, we live, eat and breath koi, and no book or conversation will ever replace hands on experience. You call that fish above junk, but it may just be one link in a chain that leads to a very valuable fish.

[PapaBear]

Genetics are not as simple with Koi as they are with many other critters. Unlike most creatures, Koi are the result of unstable genetic mutations which have been further manipulated by line breeding (introducing genetic weakness) in order to produce certain desireable traits, further manipulated by crossbeeding lines (both produced from unstable mutated genepools) in order to enhance and hopefully strengthen the most desireable traits found in both. Small wonder that so few fry coming from a well established line are considered "true to form", much less Tategoi. Many of the rest inherited only the worst genetic traits amplified from both lines.
In the culling process there are no doubt many "pretty" and "unique" fish cast aside. Why??? Because experience has taught the breeders what they will likely grow up to be, and they don't want their names associated with anything that will grow up to look like that .
Production of Koi is not cheap no matter the type. Pond space, feed, labor, medications, etc... are pretty much fixed no matter the final product. But cost of production does not establish Value in the free market. Intrinsic value is based on supply/demand along with the twist of strength/weakness of the commodity at hand. Any commodity must establish itself as having the ability to retain its strength in order to maintain or grow its value. A cute "unique" Koi that will not hold up over time is a rapidly depreciating investment that soon becomes worthless. A "tategoi" is one that will improve over time which makes it an appreciating investment. That is why "cute babies" are usually petshop specials. They grow up ugly .
The best free market analogy I can think of is NASDAQ in the 90's. A boatload of "new" businesses hit the marketplace and investment capital flew to them like flies to honey. They had no assets and no income. But they were "new" and "unique" ideas that were pure eye candy to naive investors. What they did NOT have was the ability to produce revenue and growth (TATESHITA). This is what led Alan Greenspan to refer to the Market run-up of the time as "irrational exuberance". The "DotCom" boom became the "DotCON" crash as investors finally came to grips with the ugly adults their cute babies had become. Most of those companies don't even exist today. SHIMBETZU.
Fast forward to recent years. The markets are rebounding again, but he money is flowing into appreciating assets with underlying strength. They have tangeable value and provide income to the investor that is growing over time. TATEGOI.

[JasPR]

Some very thoughtful and no doubt from the heart responses.
There are a couple of branch topics here-
The system of koi breeding over the last 70 years
The market demand
Show standards
Why people pay for some fish and overpay for others


I started with the system of breeding because if you are a smart student of nishikigoi history and breeding programs, you soon come to realize that there is a greater vision for nishikigoi varieties than just random crossing of two interesting fish to see what you will get. I’ll repeat this again to stress the point- koi varieties were bred in a deliberate and systematic way to create all possibilities within the reality and limitation of mutation genes.
Here’s another example of that- metallic sheen was created and perfected in solid pattern animals first- meaning yamabuki and purachina. Bright metallic yellow and silver platinum. These became the hikari muji class in variety type)
THEN, when well established as a true breeding, they were crossed together to produce a two colored metallic ( platinum body with a yellow pattern). This became the hikari moyo class or variety. And to the expert breeder, these became the HIKARI Type of Hikari MOYO. This is VERY important because this becomes a ‘travel map’ of sorts for future breeding programs. The NEXT natural progression then was to take this new metallic gene and introduce it into all the existing varieties- so hikari muji types ( solid colored yamabuki and especially purachina) were then crossed with each type to give a metallic version of the already existing varieties. The breeders called all these resulting Hikari moyo- are know to breeders as MOYO type Hikari Moyo- again, another ‘ travel marker’ for future breeding programs. And finally, knowing their genetics, breeders leave OUT from this last description any crosses with fish of utsuri origin as these are a black based fish of different lineage.
Hopefully you can see that ‘book learning’ provides wisdom about breeding koi far beyond backyard experimenting. Ironically, you can make crosses of phenotype until the cows come home and get nowhere in terms of creating the next logical progression in varieties. There’s an old joke and it goes something like this- " Benny, what are you doing?" "
"I’m looking for my lost keys"
" O did you loose them here?"
" no, I lost them way over there, but the light is better over here!"
JR