Soliciting opinions on KHV screening

[PapaBear]

I think the concept has merit, but compliance/enforcement is a difficult issue. For the program to have strong motivation to truly comply it would almost need to include a SIGNED certificate of compliance with the BHP standards to be included with each sale. Unscrupulous dealers/breeders might be less apt to play lets pretend if they have to personally sign off on it... Of course the product liability attornies might not like that idea.

[MysticKoi]

Quote: Further to the economic rub: In order to obtain a scientifically meaningful sample, defined by CEFAS as either a 95% confidence that you’ve “found” the thing you’re looking for at either the 10% or 2% level, you’d need to test, 30 or 150 fish, respectively. See: http://www.cefastechnology.co.uk/khv...creen-inst.htm I think you can quickly see how this would be cost prohibitive at a dealer. (And yes, I know that the CEFAS site is referring to PCR testing at that link – the statistics work the same for all “looked for” parameters). The numbers change with small batch sizes but they remain substantial.

Spike,

I read the link and am a little consfused on this point. I've some previous experience in statistical sampling, and know that sample sizes are a function of inspection type (variables vs attributes), confidence levels employed, and population size. In this case we are examining defectives based on attributes (pass/fail criteria), with specified confidence levels, but without regard to population size. I would, therefore, be interested in seeing the specifications that these recomended sample sizes are based from so that we may, if interested, devise a sampling program that uses population size to more accuratly define sample size (I've emailed them in an attempt to obtain the reference).

Kind Regards,
Bill

[Spike Cover]

Bill,

I'm a new student of statistics and am still trying to wrap my head around the null theory but I'll try to post what I have on this. I think the sampling assumes 100% specificity and sensitivity (whatever that means <LOL>).

If this stuff doesn't show up (I'm not very good at posting), just email me and I'll send it privately.

This if from Bacterial Diseases of Fish by Inglis, Roberts and Bromage, publisher: Blackwell Science, 1993, pages 258 & 9.

CEFAS uses the same numbers. See: http://www.cefastechnology.co.uk/khv/default.htm
and presumes the max population, i.e., >100,000, just to be safe, I guess.

Cheers,
Spike
scover@pacbell.net

[Spike Cover]

Was surfing and found this:
http://images.ornamental-fish-int.or...ersion%202.pdf
The subtitle was interesting, "Future Proofing the Industry"

Cheers,
Spike

[Jeff Speck]

Quote: Originally Posted by CarolinaGirl I am not too sure how I feel about it. On one hand, I would love to see koi retailers/breeders become more educated and learn how to test their fish. I am sure that with education, many koi dealers will do a much better job selling only healthy fish. But here are my fears: 1. the dishonest dealer will use his "certification" to fool an uneducated buyer into believing his fish are clean. 2. the uneducated buyer will believe that QT is unnecessary (If they ever even heard of QT). 3. The uneducated buyer will believe that the dealer can be trusted since he has this "certification". I don't know....I just see a lot of potential for abuse out there. What I would really love to see is more public education about KHV. I would like to see every koi show in the country have posters or literature explaining about koi disease transmission. Every show has signs up telling people to keep their hands out of the tanks. Ever see a sign telling people WHY they need to keep their hands out? A koi show is the perfect place to teach people about KHV and QT. At SKE, we are going to do some public education regarding KHV. We are going to use posters and hopefully some brochures. I'd like to have an auction item to donate 100% of the proceeds to KHV research. I need to talk to Susan Reed (my co-chair) about that, and locate something really cool to auction off. If we have space, I would love to devote an entire booth to KHV education.

Still think these are important concerns.

[MCA]

Suggestion....submit idea to AVMA. American Veterinary Medical Association

If it vets who will do the work and make the money...let them consider it as a profession.

[Spike Cover]

Quote:
Originally Posted by CarolinaGirl
I am not too sure how I feel about it. On one hand, I would love to see koi retailers/breeders become more educated and learn how to test their fish. I am sure that with education, many koi dealers will do a much better job selling only healthy fish. But here are my fears:

1. the dishonest dealer will use his "certification" to fool an uneducated buyer into believing his fish are clean.
If there are dishonest (relative to the BHP) dealers, there has to be a mechanism to weed them out. We are addressing this problem in the certification proceedure. I don't mean dishonest in any other way than cheating on their KHV best health practices. To get more specific, if a dealer tells you that a kohaku came from Matsunosuke and it really came from Blackwater Koi, the BHP program cannot and will not be involved.

Further, the fish cannot and will not be gurarnteed to be free of KHV. We have no relaible way to uncover latent KHV and we know it exists. What the certificate issued to the dealer will mean is that the vet attests that he/she has sufficiently inspected and maintains a survailance and reporting system such that they have confidence that the dealer is following the BHP guidelines.
2. the uneducated buyer will believe that QT is unnecessary (If they ever even heard of QT).
If we take the position that if a program is not perfect, then it's not worth doing, we will never get anything done.

There is currently a Phase 1 program ongong to educate Dealers and hobbyists. Tim Miller-Morgan, Andy Goodwin and a bunch of folks from Univ. Florida are involved. If you want them to present at an event, email them or me and we'll try to arrange it.

Remember, you can only lead the horse to water. From then on, it's up to the horse.
3. The uneducated buyer will believe that the dealer can be trusted since he has this "certification".
The certifice will mean specific things. If the uneducated buyer believes that it's something it's not, I'm not sure what we can or should do about that. This is not the certificate but something I've been fooling around with is attached.

I don't know....I just see a lot of potential for abuse out there.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, we don't have to be perfect to be better. That said, we need to have foresight and head off any and all problems that we practically can ("practically" is a key word).

What I would really love to see is more public education about KHV. I would like to see every koi show in the country have posters or literature explaining about koi disease transmission. Every show has signs up telling people to keep their hands out of the tanks. Ever see a sign telling people WHY they need to keep their hands out? A koi show is the perfect place to teach people about KHV and QT.
See my response to #2 above, i.e., the Phase 1 program (KHV education program for Dealers and hobbyists) and email me if you want to get in touch with them <scover@pacbell.net>

At SKE, we are going to do some public education regarding KHV. We are going to use posters and hopefully some brochures. I'd like to have an auction item to donate 100% of the proceeds to KHV research. I need to talk to Susan Reed (my co-chair) about that, and locate something really cool to auction off. If we have space, I would love to devote an entire booth to KHV education.

Quote: Originally Posted by Jeff Speck Still think these are important concerns.

Hi,

I'm going to try to answer one point at a time - see above in red type.

All the best,
Spike

[Spike Cover]

Quote: Originally Posted by MCA Suggestion....submit idea to AVMA. American Veterinary Medical Association If it vets who will do the work and make the money...let them consider it as a profession.

MCA (whoever you are - BTW, it's a little disconcerting not knowing who you're writing to),

We have considered your idea (several years ago). Here's "the deal" (well, problem actually): the AVMA will not sign on for, endorse, or otherwise support anything if it is not virtually "problem free." I wrote a letter to the AVMA Aquatic Vet Committee some years ago asking for their support. The said they didn't know the specifics of the program so they couldn't support it. I wrote back and asked for support of the concept only. They still would not support it.

IMNSHO, big organizations are peopled by folks who keep their jobs by not making significant mistakes (not by doing good things). If they do wonderful stuff, they get a pat on the head, a small bonus (maybe) and a small raise. If they screw up, they get fired. So the up side of taking chances is small when compared to the down side.

The big org successful folk learn to say "no" to everything but a sure thing.

The "so what?" of this is that we plan to get the program up and running. And, if and when the koi industry accepts it as a success, then we expect that the AVMA (and others) will do the Jerry Brown thing when we then ask for their support, i.e., "We've fully supported this program from the very begining."

Just the way things are. So we work with what we have, stick with it and get the job done.

All the best,
Spike

PS, I'm an engineer so no fair giving me bad marks for spelling <LOL>

[MCA]

Thanks Spike,


MCA aka Michael Anderson

VP Atlanta Koi Club