Matsue Takigawa Kohaku for critique

[JasPR]

Triple P, I agree that as the risk is rung out, the price goes up. It makes perfect sense to me as a student of economics- less risk, higher price. But I do know what can wind up with nothing by trying to gamble on outcome. The beta ( risk reward calculation) is very poor on hot tosai. They cost 10 times more than tateshita but can crash and burn just as easily. I think buying three year olds is buying value for the money.

But I don't think koi are appreciating assets either, as a student of economics! Truth be told, once a consumer buys a fish he or she is very fortunate if a koi holds it's value as they all tend to depreciate in time. The name of the game is to have a long run of enjoyment before the decline. I'm not sure I ever knew a hobbyist that sold a fish for more than they paid? I have a very good friend in the hobby that paid 4.5 million yen for a super tategoi prospect and now, after five years of growing fees, can't seem to sell this 36 incher for even 2 million yen? Most of us are happy if we can recoup 50% of the purchase price for high class fish.
So once again, to answer your question in 300000 words or less ---- I think a breeder or dealer can have a fish appreciate on the front end, but there is no secondary market for 'used' fish so I doubt that a fish can be bought for 10M and sold later for 30M by a hobbyist. The one exception is IF the seller is willing to add money to buy a new, more expensive fish and then the dealer will broker the old fish to make a second sale.
Sorry don't know enough about the line you referenced to comment or add anything that you probably already don't know. JR

[ppp]

I know some hobbyists in Malaysia who actually make money on some of their koi. These are experienced eyes who spot decent fish at a young age, nurture them for a while, put them up in the local show, win the prizes and then sell them off after the show. The show is important as it gives the koi public exposure, and winning prizes tends to enhance the value that admirers are willing to pay for it. By selling fish, it gives them the funds to start the cycle over again, and it keeps going on.

Having said that, I'm not sure if they actually are profitable on an overall basis. It's obvious that these people take gambles on smaller fish, and you have established that many things can go awry in the development of a fish, particularly a young one. It is possible that their failures far outweigh their successes, but we only see their successes..

For these hobbyists, their kick comes from being able to spot winners from a young age. They tend to be less emotionally attached to their fish, for obvious reasons, and many of their koi are actually left with their dealer for "market exposure", rather than in their own pond at home.

[JasPR]

I know some hobbyists in Malaysia who actually make money on some of their koi. These are experienced eyes who spot decent fish at a young age, nurture them for a while, put them up in the local show, win the prizes and then sell them off after the show. The show is important as it gives the koi public exposure, and winning prizes tends to enhance the value that admirers are willing to pay for it.- PPP

Triple P, Malaysia is a very different culture than Japan or the USA. we kinda consider that 'dishonest' to use a hobby show for financial enhancement of stock. Local dealers try it all the time and we amateur show organizers and judges try and counter it all the time. You can see shows that have dealers fly in supplies to pick their own fish. We often joke among ourselves that " that winner was picked somewhere over the Pacific"! This kinda thing will always go one but it really takes away from the purity of the hobby. IMO.
At any rate, that issue aside, I'm sure that almost any fish bought at any size that comes with a trophy will fetch more money than before the trophy?
JR

[ppp]

Agree with what you say. I'm personally not keen on shows myself as I find it a hassle and I've heard many fish die from the stress they are subjected to during shows. The 2005 Malaysian GC, a sanke almost 90cm, died shortly after winning the show. I just feel that it's kinda selfish if we subject them to so much stress just for the owners to show it off. For me, I buy koi for my own personal enjoyment, not to win prizes at shows.

The guys I mentioned in my last post are not dealers. They are hobbyists. They don't own shops and they don't make a living from koi. Of course by doing what they do, you could almost call them pseudo-dealers.

[JasPR]

yes, we call then wolves in sheep's clothing. JR