Steve
I think that is a false analogy since buying two lottery tickets would be taking the identical action twice in order to increase the odds of good results. On the other hand, the premise of my statement implies sequential steps in the path to understanding, (how fry develop, how tosai develop, how nisai develop . . .) not duplicative steps.
Your argument that understanding the development of tosai does not aid in selecting better koi may have validity. I don't have the experience to know if that is true, or not, but the analogy is not valid.
I would be interested to know this: On the occasions that you do purchase tosai, do you apply any critical analysis at all, or do you just make random purchases?