Predicting Future Conformation

[koiczar]

Hi Mike

Looking at the last pic you posted of the side body shot, I wouldn't be concerned at all about the head and shoulders thing. I had a shiro that at two, when purchased, the dealer said it was deformed because the shoulder hump was very large in comparison to the head. The fish was 17 inches when purchased. At the time, i felt the head was just lagging behind the rapid growth it got from tosai to nisai. So, I bought it at a cheaper price ($250). Sumi and shiroji were very nice and still developing. I guess I was right, as at sansai she was 24.5" and the head caught up with it even with the additional growth. Then, I lost her to a gill infection that was very slow to show signs of, yet had progressed beyond the point of no return. Keep the faith, your fish is a project that should be a blast to watch. It exudes quality everywhere. Nice job taking care of her.

Mike

[MikeM]

Mike: You've hit on my #1 question. I'll post a photo of another fish that I have floating in the back of my mind, but got to find where I stored it.

All: The comments on husbandry sure are good for the ego. I'll post a photo of failure to balance things out, but I try not to take photos of those.

Tony: OK, OK... I'd really like your thoughts. The breeder is Nogami. I do not have a better photo of when she arrived. It was dark and most shots came out blurred. I do have some from Nov. 2006. They are below.

As of Nov. '06, she did not have the body height she has now. She has always had a 'flat' and broad area between the eyes, and a distinctive rise behind the head. The height of the shoulders in relation to the head has increased over the past year.

[MikeM]

And, here are more photos from last Sunday morning. It's all I've got to help you form an opinion.

DickB raised some points about humps in another thread. How to apply those thoughts to this fish has me confused. A fun fish to observe, but lots of doubt about how her conformation will be in the future. All thoughts welcome.

[dick benbow]

Love the tight black in the pecs

[JasPR]

I don't want to interrupt the flow or direction of this excellent thread, but I'd like to slip in a 'factoid' here for the lurker trying to get a grasp on this subject of growth projection, if that is OK?

Koi grow. But they just don't get longer and fatter. If you use your mind's eye to project what a fish will turn out like based on what is before you, you will most of the time be disappointed. In other words, large koi are not just bigger versions of small koi.
The fundamental reason for this is that small koi are BABY koi and LARGE koi are adult koi. And like higher forms of life like humans or dogs, babies and puppies do not simply get larger--- they change. I mean wouldn't it be odd to see a German Shepard adult dog with the almost ridiculously large giant ears and massive feet of a puppy version of a German shepard?!

So koi change from baby to juvenile to young adult and to sexually mature and older adult. This is why most Americans do not understand Japanese judging to this day, by the way and rely so heavily on pattern. Each phase of a koi's life involves different types or stages of development. And it is within this context or understanding that a fish's conformation can be evaluated.

What you want to be able to do first and foremost is to be able to recognize the likely age and sex of a young fish. From there, study the next phase of growth which is likely for that age group or sex. This perspective will help greatly and change 'guess work' to a calculated gambling on a recognized time line. JR

[dick benbow]

Jim I really liked your German Shepard analogy. I think that really helps to bridge the gap to picturing what is being said here and understanding. Alto each koi is an individual, I think one of the benefits of buying fish at the breeders is that you can look at the older siblings and the parents to envision those paws and ears properly in place.

Part of my concern, has been based on purchases from the past where the koi came from enormous parents and had an exaggerated hump and the expectation was this kohaku was destined for mighty things. Placed in a well
maintained pond with room to grow it stayed proportionately the same and never stretched.

[MikeM]

Some interesting thoughts posted so far, but not very specific on how this fish will likely develop. I am surprised that nobody has been blunt in pointing out that she does not have the spindle body shape Tony usually talks about. Indeed, she is anything but 'spindle' at this point. She also is not the tight 'cigar' shape of Matsunosuke-line koi, my preferred body type. She also does not have the Ogon-type voluptuous body that can be attractive due simply to the bulk. There have also been no comments on the depth of the abdominal area in relation to the height of the shoulder. Dick has made some terse comments on positive traits, while being rather oblique otherwise. ....I'm getting the idea that maybe folks do not want to post negatives that might hurt my feelings? Hmmmm....

Well, I guess I need to be specific about my concerns to pull out the thoughts of others. I see her as being heavily influenced by european food carp genes. Both the height of the shoulder and the depth of the abdomen are too exaggerated. I think there is a substantial chance that she will end up with a body like the following:

[MikeM]

Thoughts about this prediction?

[dick benbow]

Not because I can't but because i don't want to say something that could be preceived as disrespectful to the breeder and owner, both of whom I have a great regard for.

I also need to point out that in post #13 and picture 4 where it shows the depth of the koi, it definetely shows to my eye what I call a starting of pigeon breast and double stomach, meaning there is an inward arch between the chest and the vent. Over the years I have noticed this on shiro and showa which becomes more pronounced with age and volumn of eggs. The way the eggs are carried also dictates a perception to the discerning eye as to the shape of the body. While these koi continue to grow lengthwise I've never seen one stretch later in life that seems to rectify the perception. I have seen sanke and kohaku that appeared "stocky" at 2 and 3 go thru a stretch phase at 5 and 6 which changed the look of their body shape.

I know after this thread you will look at her differently than maybe you did before and that it will become more and more unsettling as your mind pours over our comments. Hopefully you'll hang on to her and prove her critics wrong. Once thing about koi is that predicting their future is at best a "guess".

[MikeM]

You are not going to hurt my feelings, Dick.... and I doubt Nogami reads this board. There is a story behind how I got her, but that's for another time and place.

I really like this fish for the unusual combination of traits she possesses, but I do not expect her to become a show winner. I put her in the 'collector' category. The head/shoulder relationship has been the focal point of my concern from early on. The deep body is not particularly noticeable in the pond. It is when she is bowled that the extent her body shape is exaggerated becomes magnified.

I'm posting more pics of the fish I see her becoming. You may remember her from 3+ years ago. She was entered in the 2004 BKKS National. I was hugely impressed by her, due to her massiveness, not her beauty. Before I heard her story, I called her "The Dowager". When she was imported into Britain in 2001/2002 (??), I understand she caused something of a stir as 'The Nogami Showa'. Her colors were strong and brilliant, but the pigment fell apart quickly, resulting in the speckly monster of a carp that the photos show. If I recall what I was told correctly, there was a lot of positive comment about her when seen in a photo, but many admirers who then saw her in person were turned off by the grossness of her food fish features, even before her pigment failed. JR may recall the details.

Without the luxury of a mudpond, I doubt this Nogami Showa will reach the proportions of 'The Dowager', but I think that may be the direction in which she is headed. If so, I hope the Beni holds up. I think the Beni quality is fair. As the good dentist noted above, it is a bit stretched already. We'll see.