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Thread: 2009 Show Koi pricing in Japan-Up or Down?

  1. #1
    Jumbo farne230's Avatar
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    2009 Show Koi pricing in Japan-Up or Down?

    With the downturn in the Economy around the world, I would think that our hobby has been affected. I would like to know if breeders and holesalers are lowering their prices of show quality koi in Japan? What should we expect in the near future?
    Bob

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    Oyagoi Ethan25's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by farne230 View Post
    With the downturn in the Economy around the world, I would think that our hobby has been affected. I would like to know if breeders and holesalers are lowering their prices of show quality koi in Japan? What should we expect in the near future?
    Bob
    with how supply and demand works, if the demand lowers becuase of lack of funds here in the US, it would necessarily follow that the dealers would have to lower their prices to meet the lower cost demand here and elsewhere. They may even end up culling less hastily, in order to open up some lower quality selling to make up for the losses in price.

    For those with jobs and no shortage of income during this time, it may be the right time to get involved in koi keeping (of higher end koi).
    Some, not all.

  3. #3
    Jumbo farne230's Avatar
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    Has anyone seen a drop in koi pricing in Japan?
    Bob

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    Oyagoi mstrseed's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by farne230 View Post
    Has anyone seen a drop in koi pricing in Japan?
    Bob
    It might have dropped but with the weak $ against the Yen.......I doubt you see any bargains.....

  5. #5
    Oyagoi Ethan25's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mstrseed View Post
    It might have dropped but with the weak $ against the Yen.......I doubt you see any bargains.....

    Before I bought my kin showa, I asked my dealer who was in japan if the prices were any lower, and he stated that he was purchasing at the same dollar amount as he had felt he had in years past. that may have changed in the last two months.

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    Daihonmei MikeM's Avatar
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    My limited experience is that the southeast asian market drove up auction prices to a level that made my max too low for the worst fish sold at a major breeder's auction.... too low by more than the exchange rate would explain. My impression is that many breeders are hurting, but not in regard to the pricing of their top koi. It's the bulk of their production that needs a home.

  7. #7
    Oyagoi Flounder's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by farne230 View Post
    Has anyone seen a drop in koi pricing in Japan?
    Bob
    Not one bit.

    I have a yonsai, 2 sansai & 7 nisai coming in from Japan and prices are not as cheap as I wanted.

  8. #8
    Daihonmei
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    Mike's got it. The Japanese try and move thier export efforts to the regions of the world that are 'hot' at the time. This has been the history of things since the beginning. Taiwan, Singapore/Hong Kong, Germany, Korea, UK, USA and now China. It has been like a giant roulette wheel of markets over the last 30 years. And often it is fundamentally currency based as koi are all really sold in yen denominations until they get to the foreign markets for domestic consumption. Since koi have no fixed price, depending mostly on what the market will bear, and things like currency exchange and shipping vary from year to year, there is truly no one price for koi from year to year or country to country. UK koi, for instance used to be VERY expensive compared to USA koi. The strong british pound, the high demand for good koi and a very motivated buying public made UK very expensive for years compared to the USA. But because of higher levels of sophistication,expectation and pound/yen values, the British koi were of a much better quality than the koi being sent to the USA. So UK Koi could be ten times better but only cost twice the price of same age/size koi going to USA. So there are a lot of variables in the mix.
    The koi industry is contracting all over the world ,however. There will always be a few wealthy impulsives that will pull the trigger on 40 K koi. But there are not enough of them to keep an industry going. Perhaps more threatening to the koi hobby is there is a loss of that 'once army' of buyers in the $1000- 5000 range. This is the core of the hobby and thing that really keeps it all going. The tateshita are bread and butter but that is purely a volume business and local domestic production can now easily handle that demand within individual countries. The koi industry is in trouble and that usually translates to lower prices. But the industry waited too long to lower prices and now they can't as the volume has dried up making the economic model impossible. Koi breeders are wonderfully gifted 'weavers of dreams', but very poor businessmen. So at this point they are willing to go down with the ship as they try and hold the line on pricing until another market comes along. It is all they know. JR

  9. #9
    Jumbo farne230's Avatar
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    Very well put JR. I have felt at least in my case that pricing had been going up for the range of koi I was interested in and the quality for my dollar had dropped over the past four years. I had hoped this new balancing of dropping economy may benifit some of us. The price range I fall in is your 1,000 to 5,000 range. I had also notice the quality of koi offered (via pitures) from the UK seamed much better, but also a little higher priced in this range, although as you put it the quality may have been five fold to a 50% less price increase.
    Bob

  10. #10
    Daihonmei MikeM's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasPR View Post
    Koi breeders are wonderfully gifted 'weavers of dreams', but very poor businessmen. So at this point they are willing to go down with the ship as they try and hold the line on pricing until another market comes along. It is all they know. JR
    Hmmmm. I recall a well-known U.S. dealer observing that, although a new generation of breeders is more schooled in aquaculture, they are at heart rural farmers reluctant to break with tradition. That makes each departure stand out as 'revolutionary', when it may be a simple common sense response to an issue.

    In the long term the business model of relying on the bulk of production to cover costs, with the few high-end koi producing the profit, cannot hold up against domestic production around the world. The Japanese breeder has no equal at the high-end, but I am left to wonder how to cover the capital investment essential to handle the volume necessary to produce enough high-end koi to sustain a farm. Even the most highly regarded breeders cannot cull to their top contenders during the first summer. If they could, they would not need much for winter accomodations. SFF is seen as a great success in the quality of its production, but that perception is based on comparatively few fish, not the millions 'processed' continuously to produce the jewels.

    The business of koi is fascinating.

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