Did the sky fall while I was asleep?
From My perspective...No one will understand how many ponds already have KHV survivors in them than me.
I had three types of email/personal messages when i was going through my KHV episode. Emails that none of you all ever got. And therefore my perspective is not quite as limited as "the sky is falling" attitude already posted.
The first of the three was from several people that stated they had exactly the same thing happening in their ponds and they shotgun treated their ponds and the fish are all fine now. These Ponders were trying to be helpful in private so as to protect the source of their fish. However they never tested their fish...so they had the exact symptoms I had and I tested for khv and they did not... and when I treated with F&MG my koi all became "fine." So there are some ponds out there that are extremely suspect for KHV where the Hobbyists are sticking their heads in the sand..and THAT IS JUST THE ONES THAT VISIT WEBSITES AND WERE WILLING TO EMAIL ME (That is an extremely small percentage of the people that bought koi at cfks. EXTREMELY SMALL.)
The second group were people that either had or knew of other koi hobbyists that had nothing but "Survivor ponds". These are people that decided to keep their collection even after they tested positive for KHV. I was told of/emailed by these people when i was posting that I was of the mind to keep the survivors and quit the show aspect of the hobby...They were congratulatory emails and supportive. And remember once again, very few people read the boards and even fewer are willling to expose themselves to the negativism of most of the childlike posters on the web.
The third was a group of emails that had problems just like mine but were not bothering to get their koi tested. This was the largest percentage of the three.
The third group told me if they had a KHV outbreak they would quit the social aspect of the hobby and keep their survivors.
The extremely vast majority of the hobbyists do not even consider quarantining. You can talk and post till you are blue in the face and fingers and people are NOT going to QT their newly-purchased koi.
No one knows how prevalent the disease is in the hobby... carriers and sub-lethal strains abound.
But besides that.... there is no known understanding of how prevalent KHV is in the hobby..Not in sales tanks or in hobbyisit's collections...KHV Survivors do NOT have to break..KHV Survivors are easily created by having healthy filtration systems, and shotgun-treating, and by the outbreak occurring when the water temps are rising and the outbreak is squashed by a high water temp...All thos ekoi become carriers...heck even unscupulous dealers can(are) practicing dubious practices by "cycling" the koi they buy and resale....An unscupulous cycle...get em into the permissive zone, keep them there for a week or two (not long enough for the koi to have clinical symptoms but long enough for the virus to reproduce and shed to the other koi), and thne take them up to the warmer temps that allow koi to fight off the disease abut the KHV to stop replicating..those carriers actually have an un-attenuated strain of the Vaccine! think about it.
The Koi Hobby's leaders fail to understand the simplest aspect of the disease...They have made NO attempt at determining the current level of infection of the disease within the hobbyists' population.... half the ponds in the USA could have KHV Survivors in them...
Also.... how many years have the Israelis been vaccinating all their koi? CHEAPLY VACCINATING THEIR KOI. And how many people posted how that would result in tragedy on a grand scale? i haven't seen where those vaccinated koi have caused the harship that was theorized by the experts? Am I wrong? Have the Israelis been forced out of the hobby due to the failure of their vaccination program?
Brett has a very strong negative viewpoint of the ability of a KHV vaccine...he's grounded in science most all the time..but the Israelis vaccinate their koi and they are not causing KHV, nor breaking out in KHV.
99.9999% of the people that buy koi this year never even heard of KHV.
Of the.0001% that have heard of KHV less than 1% of them will QT their koi.
If you QT your new koi purchases then you are one in a one-hundred thousand...99,999 other people took their koi home and dumped them in the pond with their other fish. Hundreds of those will put the koi in a river or retention pond when they get too big for the bath tub water feature in their backyard. And thousands of others release koi into ponds on their property which flow into public waterways at some time.
And all the king's horses and all the king's men will never get the hobby to QT thier koi.
The casual koi owner doesn't know.
The casual hobbyist leaves it to the person he got the koi from..."My Dealer practices the BHP of the AKCA... what was that? "BHP"BS?
I can apply exactly the same BS convoluted logic that some have proposed concerning how a KHV vaccine will increase the spread of KHV...If the Hobbyist buys a koi from a Koi dealer that has a BHP certificate from the AKCA they will feel secure in knowing that the koi is khv free. there ya go...the real Quarantine Freak will QT their koi regardless of BHP or a Vaccine...no one is gonna quit doing what they are because of the vaccine...BUT it will be another layer of protection..even for the Quarantine freaks.
Fact. No one has tried to understand the epidemiology of KHV in the Hobbyists' Population. (Thousands of ponds have carriers in them, and have had outbreaks that were not typical disaster outbreaks and are therefore not considered to be "Khv-survivor Populations" but koi that are welcomed at koi shows.)
Fact. The Israelis KHV vaccinate their koi..no problems (except in the ungrounded backlash of fear).
Fact. 1 in 100,000 people will Quarantine. 99,999 will not., and having a vaccine will not change that ratio....that person will continue to do so and the others won't.
Fact. A vaccine will diminish the chance of khv being introduced to EVERYONE's collection...No, the koi being introduced does NOT have to have been vaccinated...a vaccine diminishes the risk that a koi was ever exposed to the virus.
I can't remember the name of the theory, but ti is one inwhich the beklief has been proven that when a certain number of individuals within a given population have been vaccinated the disease can not advance through the population and find new hosts. So vaccinating helps the whole hobby.
And no, the vaccine will not be a flop...the British Government is competent enough to not release a vaccine that does not ahve a positive impact.