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Thread: "if"

  1. #1
    Daihonmei
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Posts
    5,198

    "if"

    one little word...
    "if"
    the hobby is built on that word...
    it was used as a negative towards ethan's tategoi shiro utsuri..
    but id there were no "ifs' in this hobby it would not exist...everything in this hobby has "if" attached to it....


    all koi go into a mud pond with their "ifs"...some never make it out alive and their "ifs" died with them

  2. #2
    Honmei
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    2,744
    Quote Originally Posted by luke frisbee View Post
    one little word...
    "if"
    the hobby is built on that word...
    it was used as a negative towards ethan's tategoi shiro utsuri..
    but id there were no "ifs' in this hobby it would not exist...everything in this hobby has "if" attached to it....


    all koi go into a mud pond with their "ifs"...some never make it out alive and their "ifs" died with them
    LOL I have to chuckle at the usage of the term "Tategoi" in conjunction to the Shiro Utsuri want to be of Ethans.

    The hobby is made up upon "dreams" and the fulfilment of those through a series of "ifs". "Ifs" represent "risks". Developement trends, education, and experience can help to reduce the risks of "ifs". Multiple "ifs" that remain higher risks (higher odds of negative results) compound to a level of risk (or odds) that somewhere along the way the risk is closer to certainty. Like most things in life, we weigh benefit verses risks and base our decisions on such. Those with a better track record of positive results in their decisions are almost always those with more experience and knowledge on the subject and become the "winners" of the game since they know the odds of the "ifs" is such that benefit weighs higher than risk.

    The word "if" is not a negative, it is a risk that could have positive or negative results.

    Without weighting the odds of an "if" to one outcome or another but simplistically a 50/50 chance, we see that 1 "if" would yield a 50/50 chance for a positive verses negative outcome. Statistics also teach us that multipl risks ("if" yield different results (even when weighted equally).

    "if" plus "if" equals 1 good /good, 1 good/bad, 1 bad/good, and 1 bad/bad. Thus 2 equally weighted "ifs" reduce the "good" outcome to 25% verses that of 50% on a single if.

    Add a third "if" into the mix and you get:
    1 good/good/good, 1 good/good/bad, 1 good/bad/good, 1 good/bad/bad, 1 bad/good/bad, 1 bad/bad/good, 1 bad/bad/bad, 1 bad/good/good and if I have done this right, the third "risk (if) not lessens the odds of success on 3 equal risks down to 12.5%

    Thus, the more "ifs" the greater the risks, regardless of the weighting of the individual risks themselves. This being said, those risks can be mitigated by improving one's knowledge in the attributes of each risk. Knowing the difference (attributes) between higher risks and lower risks within an "if" can improve ones "odds" on success or steer one away from gambles with little hope for an overall positive outcome.
    The views presented are my personal views and not that of any organization that I may belong to unless otherwise specified. [email protected]
    CKHPA

  3. #3
    Oyagoi HEADACHE6's Avatar
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    Jun 2006
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    2,112
    Hey Luke , Come up with your own Word "If" you can .

  4. #4
    Daihonmei
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
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    5,198
    ........maybe

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