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Thread: Supply & Demand

  1. #1
    Jumbo Akai-San's Avatar
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    Question Supply & Demand

    Just a newbie thinking outloud...
    Is it expected that with the recent tragic events in Niigata, that koi $$$ around the world will sky-rocket? Much like Hawaii real estate...its insane! Of course there will be nothing like the real thing, but does anyone think that local area breeders will step up production to attempt to fill the void? What about overall quality, can it be maintained with an expected surgence of breeding and need to fill orders? I think it will require all hobbiest to be very well experienced and lucky in judging and picking high quality nishikigoi. I think it will be interesting to note events that follow...I just find it amazing how mother nature can and will change the nature of things in one timeless swoop. My Aloha to all.

  2. #2
    Daihonmei aquitori's Avatar
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    I think with the price going up we lose more hobbyist. Isn't bad enough that people were complaining about the prices before the earthquake..Are there people out there who have the money to pay for whatever they want and not think twice about it? Yes. But, there are also the people who buy on a budget too..There is life outside of koi you know. The only thing I can say is for people to watch what they buy, buy smart and dont buy on impulse.


    KOI-UNIT!!!

  3. #3
    Jumbo Akai-San's Avatar
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    I never really thought about people losing interest in the hobby due to expense of koi and or koi keeping. Not what this newbie wanted to hear. I haven't even begun construction on my first pond yet. I guess I better think twice maybe even three times....but honestly, once having koi, could you really forget about them so easily? I don't think I would. Makes me wish I started this obsession a couple years ago while I was building my home.

    Does everyone in the hobby get into nishikigoi for competition purposes or more for the enjoyment of having pet koi? My interest actually lies in between. I am very interested in learning how nishikigoi develop, grow and mature and what it takes to select and raise tategoi quality nishikigoi. I'm sure I won't need to buy tategoi from the get go....but I'm sure after a few years, the obsession will lead to that...hahaha...just trying to fulfill one of my dreams.

  4. #4
    Sansai shiromujigirl's Avatar
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    Here is an obsessed person who has not even got a pond yet......

    You are so precious! So cool! Welcome to the Delightful Japanese Water Torture!

    If you build your pond right the first time, you will not have the expense of expensive rebulids. There are plenty of people here to help you do it sensibly and fairly cheap. Welcome dear tosai!

  5. #5
    Jumbo
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    Not to worry koi fans, supply and demand is real but in this case, the southern Japanese will try and eat the Niigata boy's lunch. Additionally, the Niigata clan will need to move more koi than ever before to cover overhead and cash demands. No more, "I'll wait until the next customer comes through the door"- they are more likely to be very motivated by cash flow needs than the normal maximizing of individual transactional profits.

    JR

  6. #6
    Daihonmei dick benbow's Avatar
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    I think there's some pretty good advice here in this thread......

    koi are not the biggest expense, build your system correct the first time and your ahead of the game.

    I think JR's got the market figured out pretty well! It's always possible your
    particular dealer dealt exclusively with Niigata breeders and now has to go elsewhere where the choices are not as abundant nor does he have a relationship in the pecking order. Your might not find the same selection or quality
    but I don't anticipate drastic price increases.

    buy fewer koi but better ones. Put them in an understocked high quality water/koi pond and enjoy!

  7. #7
    Daihonmei MikeM's Avatar
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    Dick: You've hit on an important point. The dealers are getting very anxious about inventory for the coming year. The "big guys" will weather it, but some of the less established ones will be on thin ice.

    JR: Wanna bet whether U.S. dealers pass on the cash discounts in their pricing? .... nothing like muttered words about "how rare it is this year to be able to get such quality". I know, it's all supply and demand ... and a little hype.

  8. #8
    Jumbo
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    Mike, I cringe every time a newbie proudly posts a picture of the 20 inch ginrin male chagoi they bought for $2000! So nothing surprises me any more when it comes to my dealer brethren! JR

  9. #9
    Jumbo Bern's Avatar
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    One of my local dealers has returned from buying koi down south last week.
    He told that the prices were going up while he was there. He didn't put the rise down to the breeders but the agents.

    rgds BERN

  10. #10
    Jumbo
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    Waves,...

    Yes, definitely,... the power will shift to the Southern Japanese breeders,... for a few years at least,... Momotaro is on the way to becoming King, and this could solidify his place on the throne. There SHOULD be no increase in Koi pricing,... the market is pretty saturated right now,... over saturated with Koi. VERY nice Koi WILL and should always be more expensive,... the price of general grades should not change. China and Taiwan will likely step up production,... but unfortunately with that can come issues of quality and health. There is no doubt things in Koi will change with this disaster. Just as with a void in a pond's eco-system, any void in our Koi world will be filled,... hopefully the bacteria filling the void will be beneficial bacteria though.

    Best Wishes,
    Brady Brandwood

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