Home | About Us | Contact Us


Koi Forum - Koi-Bito Magazine straight from Japan
Page 1 of 6 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 57

Thread: current market and koi hobby...

  1. #1
    wild horse dinh's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    A future show to be defined soon....
    Posts
    4,810

    current market and koi hobby...

    Just wonder how current market impact your koi hobby?

  2. #2
    Daihonmei aquitori's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    NorCal Biotch!!!
    Posts
    9,133
    I would like to here it from the the dealer's perspective, since there isn't a sense of urgencey on the part of the hobbyist. For me I dont spend the crazy amount of money like some do anyways to effect me finanicially.

  3. #3
    Honmei
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Martinez,CA
    Posts
    4,611
    We haven't seen much of a difference,yet!

  4. #4
    Oyagoi Sangreaal's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Northern California
    Posts
    1,829
    Quote Originally Posted by dinh View Post
    Just wonder how current market impact your koi hobby?
    The ever-rising price of gas and utilities affects me and my ability to do what I want as opposed to what I must. It's a very basic thing and more dependent on the price of oil rather than the current market. The current market, though, might impact some jobs and investments. I think it's too soon to tell yet how it will affect the hobby overall....

  5. #5
    Daihonmei
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    7,642
    It should be interesting to watch. It really is all going to depend how deep this recession is. And by definition, you only have that answer in hindsight. Two quarters of poor growth.

    But the general public has not yet gotten their heads around the magnatude of this current problem.
    It is true that it began in the bubble of the real estate market just as the nasdq crash started in the bubble of the technology market. But this one has a deeper economic pinning to it. In this case, the bubble in real estate was created by excess credit and basically, free money. That four year plus policy created within the greater US economic system, an environment of extreme leverage. And leverage is a two edged sword and now must swing the other way. The Feds find themselves in a no win situation- if they rescue the system they recreate the same excess credit environment as before and discourage saving which is right now at zero. Only to end in a bigger crash down the line. If they ignore the problem and simply shore up the banking system liquidity, at some point they will be 'pushing on a string' and , mixing metaphors, the dominos will fall pushing the greater economy into a deeper recession.
    This is why the markets reacted so badly to the 3/4 interest rate cut coming between meetings. For the 'guys in the water' it seems like a rescue plan. But for the ' guys in the boat' it seemed like an over reaction and a confirmation that the government is truly worried that we will all soon be in the water!

    Koi, especially high end koi, are very often purchased by home equity loans. And this is one of the 'free money' areas that was created over the past four years. The feds are investigating many institutions that were leaning on apprasiers to over value homes for home equity loan purposes. This will be the next scandal as so many took that money out of the line of credit and spent it and now do not have the necessary equity in their homes to refinance ( 20% equity ownership is what most institutions will return to and remember most homes are only worth 80% of what they were worth at the top). So expect this credit source to tighten up in 2008-09. JR

  6. #6
    Daihonmei aquitori's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    NorCal Biotch!!!
    Posts
    9,133
    Quote Originally Posted by JasPR View Post
    Koi, especially high end koi, are very often purchased by home equity loans. And this is one of the 'free money' areas that was created over the past four years. The feds are investigating many institutions that were leaning on apprasiers to over value homes for home equity loan purposes. This will be the next scandal as so many took that money out of the line of credit and spent it and now do not have the necessary equity in their homes to refinance ( 20% equity ownership is what most institutions will return to and remember most homes are only worth 80% of what they were worth at the top). So expect this credit source to tighten up in 2008-09. JR
    I know of a couple of hobbyist who have dipped into the equity to by that special fish, only to regret it, because something happened to that special fish were it is rendered worthless. Thanks JR for your insight on the economy...

  7. #7
    Daihonmei PapaBear's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Davenport, Oklahoma
    Posts
    6,726

    A side note...

    I like JR's commentary as it pretty well mirrors my own thoughts, but there is one other observation I've made over the years.
    Peoples wallets react to economic trends politically as much as they do based on the realities of the marketplace.
    When Republicans are seemingly in charge, consumers on the more politically conservative end of the spectrum spend and invest with confidence while more liberal types do not.
    When Democrats are in the D.C. drivers seat the trend reverses and politically liberal types are more confident while conservatives pull back.
    Case in point.
    During the 90's the biggest players in the NASDAQ boom/bust were more politically aligned with Clinton than Reagan, while those who have been more active during the current administration are more conservatively aligned. With it appearing likely that there will be a continuation of the 2006 political swing to the left in the upcoming election cycle some of the conservative money is beginning to re-align itself while the liberal money remains on the sidelines. That may accelerate the downward correction and slow down the rebound as the market shuffles in a sideways swing pattern.
    People give D.C. WAY too much credit for economic cycles, good or bad
    Larry Iles
    Oklahoma

  8. #8
    Oyagoi
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    Brazoria County, Texas
    Posts
    1,044
    To quote myself....

    "If you can't afford for the fish to die tomorrow, don't buy it."

    When the economy goes down, there is little or no effect on the sales of my best fish. It is the low grade koi sales that really suffer. Economy up or down, my wealthy customers are still wealthy, working class folks, well, they hold back on spending.

    Wish I'da got me some of that "free money".

    Go try and get a loan on a koi breeding operation.....

    My credit is excellent (getting worse because of the farming operation, though).

    No bank, no guvment entity, no institution of any kind will loan me money for things like rent, fuel, labor, feed, repairs, etc. Any bank or dealership will lend me all the money I want to buy things like new equipment, new trucks, new tractors, etc.

    Now if I were to go into a "lose money fast rather than slow" operation like catfish farming, I could get a bank loan. Go figure.

    Brett
    Brett

  9. #9
    Jumbo Steve Nguyen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Bay Area, CA
    Posts
    994
    one thing seems to point this way.... we are in for a rough ride this year so hold tight or the wind might blow you off the train. Election year has usually been a good year for wall street but this year will be an exception.

    Bush is doing it again by taking cash from right pocket and stuff them into the left pocket. it doesn't fix any problem but rather create bigger problem in long run. Inflation has been on the raise for last few years and yet the government release their inflation reading within forecast range. I say they cooked the book for so long and now they can't hide it anymore. people were happy when they got their first check from Bush on tax break but Bush/Cheney took all of it right back and more by brought up the oil prices 4 folds. Their strategic energy plan has really paid off for their bank accounts and investment. Now you are about to get another check from Bush, he just digged a bigger hole for Americans. deficit is going to kill many of us. Each American including those unborn babies already owe roughly around $9,000.00 He is spending the money that your unborn children has to pay in future. my prediction is that by 2020's we are in deeper shit than current situation.

    your government has been operating on your property taxes. they are counting on your dollars for many things. a drop in real estate market hurt their budget so they will try their best to prevent it but that silver bullet already flew off the gun barrel and it won't stop until the target is hit. Real estate melt down started and not finish yet despite the Feds intervention to help the sub-prime. their action only prolong the inevitable. it won't stop the silver bullet from flying. too many houses were built and their prices were too high. what came up must come down. it's a law of gravity!

    enough rants for today,

    Steve

  10. #10
    Daihonmei aquitori's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    NorCal Biotch!!!
    Posts
    9,133
    Seems after each president serves 2 terms the economy takes a dump. Even after the Clinton dot. bust the economy was still on shakey grounds it is the housing market that turned the economy to crap, just as the dot.com did...We just have to look locally to find were the most fore-closures are at in the US...Stockton, Tracy, Los Banos...

    My neighbor in Los Banos thought he would make big time money by buying 3 houses on the same block. Of course he had to have a Benz, Motorhome, boat and brag to everyone else on the block he has this and that...where did he get his wealth? The equity of course...Where doe he live now? Back with his mother in a townhouse here in San Jose they rent. The 3 houses, boat, benz, motorhome GONE!!! He works 3 jobs, applied in my group, too bad for him I had the final say. I have to admit it couldnt have a happen to a Jerkier Guy.
    The world sleeps as the chance to learn something new passes.

Page 1 of 6 123 ... LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. What is good current?
    By Peppy in forum Main Forum
    Replies: 11
    Last Post: 06-21-2010, 09:06 AM
  2. Replies: 21
    Last Post: 10-09-2005, 11:01 AM
  3. Replies: 19
    Last Post: 08-25-2005, 04:30 PM
  4. Best heaters on the market for a pond...
    By keokoi in forum Main Forum
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 07-07-2005, 10:09 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Articles - Sitemap - FAQs and Rules

KB Footer Graphic
Straight from Japan... For the serious hobbyist!
All content and images copyright of: Koi-bito.com