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World Record Tosai: 7 million yen

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  • World Record Tosai: 7 million yen

    You may have already heard the news. With all the discussion about tosai lately, I thought I'd post about it anyway.

    At the Dainichi auction held on April 22, a 40cm guaranteed female Showa tosai sold for 7 million yen, or approximately $68,300.00, setting a new record (as far as anyone knows) for a tosai. Narita acted as dealer with the purchaser being Koi Kichi Fish Farm in Thailand. Anyone interested in acquiring the Showa should contact Koi Kichi Fish Farm. (If you want their telephone number, check on Facebook.) ....I wonder if KKFF paid Narita the usual 20% commission?.... $13,700 +/- in this case. It's a tough day's work being at the Dainichi auction. ...Surely they had a special arrangement of some sort???... perhaps not.

    A link to the tosai:

    The 6th Dainichi koi farm auction 2014/Special/002_40cm_Blue

    If the link does not work, perhaps someone can post the photo (Special Koi #2).

    The Showa is really quite remarkable, and at 40cm (16") one can have a much better idea about the fish than if she was the typical 20-25cm tosai. This is where having been raised to jumbo tosai size creates the opportunity to see the future more clearly.

    Still, she is just tosai. It would be a daring acquisition for a hobbyist. For a dealer to acquire it and already be offering her for sale is amazing.... Really, just amazing. There are a few people in the world who would spend far more on a custom Mazerati they drive only a few miles per month. So, there should not be a suprise that someone believes a hobbyist will come along willing to pay more to own her. Presumably she will be kept in Japan (at Narita Koi Farm, I would guess), and groomed to compete in the Shinkokai All-Japan Show in the year 2019 or so. By then, there will have been well over $100,000 invested in her and if she goes on to claim GC, the total cost will be probably less than half of what it would likely cost to buy a GC ringer 'off the shelf' today. But, if she proves to be anything less than an All-Japan GC, nobody can really win in the end, except Dainichi which did well on a tosai and has no risk going forward. Someone believes there are enough optimists to make this record sum a sensible business decision.

    When the Great Recession spilled over into Europe, with recession and debt crises dragging so many down, it was said that the 'dragon economies' of Asia would be the saviour of the Japanese koi breeders. It is still true.
  • #2

    When I heard what Koi Kichi Fish Farm paid for the Dainichi Showa tosai, it reminded me of Arby's buying Pharrell's hat on eBay for $44,100.




    Businesses do crazy things for publicity.

    Comment

    • #3

      That's a text-book pattern for the just about 'perfect Showa' if I've ever seen one. You couldn't draw one up much better looking if you sat down with a sketch pad to do it. Coupled with a classic beefy Showa body form and thick tail-tube, etc., it really doesn't get much better.

      Not knowing anything about the genetics of 'Blue', my only concern would be the already highly developed sumi. Even at a massive 40 cm as a tosai, at that age there's every likelihood she's still not 'finished' in many ways, including pattern. Should the sumi 'run' and expand too much of the beni, her value will drop. But if she grows as promised and keeps a pattern even close to this one -- look out All-Japan Show if and when she tips 80 cm!

      Comment

      • #4

        What do you think is the probability of that koi leaving Narita's care...or leaving Japan?

        Anywhere from little to none I would guess.
        Koi keeping is not a belief system; it is applied science with a touch of artistry.

        Comment

        • #5

          the Link doesn't work .. somebody pls post a picture ...

          We all got to see this .....


          -KK

          Comment

          • #6

            Video link.

            https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...31217390313879

            Here's the photo.

            Click image for larger version

Name:	Screenshot_2014-04-24-05-01-50_1.jpg
Views:	1
Size:	132.8 KB
ID:	233302

            Comment

            • #7

              Originally posted by KK.Menon View Post
              the Link doesn't work .. somebody pls post a picture ...
              We all got to see this .....
              -KK

              Comment

              • #8

                That is a lot of dough for a tosai! I have another hobby that involves collecting gals as well, but if I were to spend nearly $70K, I could at least get 8-10 of these.....



                And hopefully, they won't change much in their old age.....

                Comment

                • #9

                  As nice as the tosai is, I still wonder why it wasn't kept to grow further by the breeder. Is it an expensive cull? Or is it a calculated risk by the breeder? Can't help agreeing with Mike that the winner here is Dainichi. It's great money and prestige to bag a lot of cash for a tosai. If it fails you just don't hear of it. If it develops as hoped for, and it wins Japan GC, it makes for bidding tosai more lucrative than ever.

                  I also wonder if you have a good eye in sizing up tosai and just enough money to burn (meaning you don't throw away good money), would you bid this much? Buying a tosai I'd have to imagine its potential forming at the back of my mind and hoping my imagination serves me right. This tosai looks money to me at first glance, but I would need to not let my imagination run wild as my imagination fulfilled would not serve me well. I would hope it stays as it is and go on to bag GC.

                  Comment

                  • #10

                    Originally posted by yerrag View Post
                    As nice as the tosai is, I still wonder why it wasn't kept to grow further by the breeder.
                    You are right on! What does the breeder see that the normal hobbiest, OR even well funded hobbiest doesn't see. I guess in the breeders eyes, this fish maybe too finished and probably will mature too soon in order to compete with the BIG gals in the GC arena. I'm sure anyone would still love to have this specimen in their pond.

                    Comment

                    • #11

                      Originally posted by Akai-San View Post
                      You are right on! What does the breeder see that the normal hobbiest, OR even well funded hobbiest doesn't see. I guess in the breeders eyes, this fish maybe too finished and probably will mature too soon in order to compete with the BIG gals in the GC arena. I'm sure anyone would still love to have this specimen in their pond.
                      Auctions is different from selling it faster because it is of inferior quality. There is such a thing as strategy to bring out the best fish in an auction because it can bring up interest for the auction and in this case fame and huge profit for Dainichi. He could have opt to have this koi sell as a nisai and risk the sumi overpowering the pattern or this koi would command a higher price as a nisai as it grows further or it could just die in the mudpond. Either way there are risk involve. Meanwhile he has other exceptional koi that may not be ready for auction as tosai(because of body and pattern) but will be surely be ready as nisai.

                      Comment

                      • #12

                        He could have opt to have this koi sell as a nisai and risk the sumi overpowering the pattern or this koi would command a higher price as a nisai as it grows further or it could just die in the mudpond. Either way there are risk involve.
                        Yes, imho, the breeder weighs the risks, decides there's more downside than upside, and decides to auction it off. In an auction, it is bidder beware. The only guarantee given is that it's female. Bidder is responsible for his own judgment (or if you will, misjudgment). No one is forcing him to bid above the value of the tosai. Whatever bid price prevails is never set by the breeder, and the breeder goes home safe from any accusation he overpriced any koi on auction. The buyer, on the other hand, has the highest hope it was all worth it as this was the "market" price. Comfort lies in knowing the breeder can be wrong in culling koi, and hopes he got away with a steal. That time will tell whether he was right. No one can be sure of the outcome. No one can really suffer the winner's curse as winning bidders still can enjoy the koi's beauty. Not winning the GC may not be the goal as bidder may simply have a soft spot for that koi. Plus, whatever the value, it will not impoverish him. No one can say he was a fool. Overall, if I by some stroke of luck happen to be blessed with a showa of such beauty, I would know how much I'd price it to someone interested.

                        Comment

                        • #13

                          Originally posted by yerrag View Post
                          As nice as the tosai is, I still wonder why it wasn't kept to grow further by the breeder. Is it an expensive cull? Or is it a calculated risk by the breeder?
                          I am told that many of the koi sold at this auction were of good, solid quality, but not particularly special. There were also some that were very good... unusually good. And, there were the three Dainichi identified as 'special', which were indeed of rare quality and also had immediate appeal. So, it seems to me that Dainichi was placing some truly special ones up for auction in order to draw participants and build excitement. I suspect that for Narita and Koi Kichi FF to team up as they did, they likely knew about the Showa in advance (and not just by seeing photography on the web)... probably pointed out to Narita on one or several of his visits since the Fall harvest and discussed whenever paths crossed, such as at the many shows held after harvest. I'm not suggesting some advance deal. I would expect Mano-san to promote his top koi at every opportunity.

                          But, is this record-breaking Showa the #1 tategoi tosai from the 2013 breeding year? ... On which day? I expect Dainichi has a 'top dozen' or 'top five Showa tosai' ... a top tier of tosai on which rest great hope for extraordinary achievements. This was probably one. But, just one and not 'the one'. The Mano brothers might like the potential of another a bit more, or even consider the four (or 10) they kept as equally worthy for raising up. The one thing I do not believe is that Dainichi put what the Mano brothers considered their true #1 tosai of the year up for auction. I would be very surprised if there were not others of equal potential designated for the mud. They might not have the same immediate appeal as to pattern, the sumi may be less developed, but the value as nisai even higher. ....A nisai at the auction went for even more, but not a record-breaking price. So, it isn't a headline discussion. Based on market value, the nisai is a better koi than the tosai. Think about it.

                          Comment

                          • #14

                            Originally posted by sacicu View Post
                            Auctions is different from selling it faster because it is of inferior quality. There is such a thing as strategy to bring out the best fish in an auction because it can bring up interest for the auction and in this case fame and huge profit for Dainichi. He could have opt to have this koi sell as a nisai and risk the sumi overpowering the pattern or this koi would command a higher price as a nisai as it grows further or it could just die in the mudpond. Either way there are risk involve. Meanwhile he has other exceptional koi that may not be ready for auction as tosai(because of body and pattern) but will be surely be ready as nisai.
                            Auction strategy is something to beware of. It is a psychological manipulation that gets people to spend more. The auction environment can do that, if well-promoted in advance to get some excitable attendees. The emphasis on males at Momotaro's last auction was interesting and apparently succeeded in getting strong prices for a larger than normal number of males. Dainichi attracted some very deep pockets with the 'special tosai' offered at this auction. There were 213 koi up for auction. Did they on average go for $500 more than if such deep pockets had not been attracted? Perhaps even more on average? If so, Dainichi made over $100,000 from that impact alone. I am told that bidding was energetic. There seems to be some thought that koi equivalent to the ones that went for, say, $3500 or less could be purchased at the farm for less. When there is good advance promotion, dealers arrive with customers' authorizations in hand and are eager to win for the customer (and themselves). Folks do tend to pay a maximum price.

                            Comment

                            • #15

                              I dont get it. Thats an awfully finished tosai. How much could it "develop" before its completely finished? Could it grow that much before being fully finished?

                              Comment

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