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  • Supply & Demand

    Just a newbie thinking outloud...
    Is it expected that with the recent tragic events in Niigata, that koi $$$ around the world will sky-rocket? Much like Hawaii real estate...its insane! Of course there will be nothing like the real thing, but does anyone think that local area breeders will step up production to attempt to fill the void? What about overall quality, can it be maintained with an expected surgence of breeding and need to fill orders? I think it will require all hobbiest to be very well experienced and lucky in judging and picking high quality nishikigoi. I think it will be interesting to note events that follow...I just find it amazing how mother nature can and will change the nature of things in one timeless swoop. My Aloha to all.
  • #2

    I think with the price going up we lose more hobbyist. Isn't bad enough that people were complaining about the prices before the earthquake..Are there people out there who have the money to pay for whatever they want and not think twice about it? Yes. But, there are also the people who buy on a budget too..There is life outside of koi you know. The only thing I can say is for people to watch what they buy, buy smart and dont buy on impulse.


    KOI-UNIT!!!
    The world sleeps as the chance to learn something new passes.

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    • #3

      I never really thought about people losing interest in the hobby due to expense of koi and or koi keeping. Not what this newbie wanted to hear. I haven't even begun construction on my first pond yet. I guess I better think twice maybe even three times....but honestly, once having koi, could you really forget about them so easily? I don't think I would. Makes me wish I started this obsession a couple years ago while I was building my home.

      Does everyone in the hobby get into nishikigoi for competition purposes or more for the enjoyment of having pet koi? My interest actually lies in between. I am very interested in learning how nishikigoi develop, grow and mature and what it takes to select and raise tategoi quality nishikigoi. I'm sure I won't need to buy tategoi from the get go....but I'm sure after a few years, the obsession will lead to that...hahaha...just trying to fulfill one of my dreams.

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      • #4

        Here is an obsessed person who has not even got a pond yet......

        You are so precious! So cool! Welcome to the Delightful Japanese Water Torture!

        If you build your pond right the first time, you will not have the expense of expensive rebulids. There are plenty of people here to help you do it sensibly and fairly cheap. Welcome dear tosai!

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        • #5

          Not to worry koi fans, supply and demand is real but in this case, the southern Japanese will try and eat the Niigata boy's lunch. Additionally, the Niigata clan will need to move more koi than ever before to cover overhead and cash demands. No more, "I'll wait until the next customer comes through the door"- they are more likely to be very motivated by cash flow needs than the normal maximizing of individual transactional profits.

          JR

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          • #6

            I think there's some pretty good advice here in this thread......

            koi are not the biggest expense, build your system correct the first time and your ahead of the game.

            I think JR's got the market figured out pretty well! It's always possible your
            particular dealer dealt exclusively with Niigata breeders and now has to go elsewhere where the choices are not as abundant nor does he have a relationship in the pecking order. Your might not find the same selection or quality
            but I don't anticipate drastic price increases.

            buy fewer koi but better ones. Put them in an understocked high quality water/koi pond and enjoy!
            Dick Benbow

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            • #7

              Dick: You've hit on an important point. The dealers are getting very anxious about inventory for the coming year. The "big guys" will weather it, but some of the less established ones will be on thin ice.

              JR: Wanna bet whether U.S. dealers pass on the cash discounts in their pricing? .... nothing like muttered words about "how rare it is this year to be able to get such quality". I know, it's all supply and demand ... and a little hype.

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              • #8

                Mike, I cringe every time a newbie proudly posts a picture of the 20 inch ginrin male chagoi they bought for $2000! So nothing surprises me any more when it comes to my dealer brethren! JR

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                • #9

                  One of my local dealers has returned from buying koi down south last week.
                  He told that the prices were going up while he was there. He didn't put the rise down to the breeders but the agents.

                  rgds BERN
                  South East Koi Club

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                  • #10

                    Waves,...

                    Yes, definitely,... the power will shift to the Southern Japanese breeders,... for a few years at least,... Momotaro is on the way to becoming King, and this could solidify his place on the throne. There SHOULD be no increase in Koi pricing,... the market is pretty saturated right now,... over saturated with Koi. VERY nice Koi WILL and should always be more expensive,... the price of general grades should not change. China and Taiwan will likely step up production,... but unfortunately with that can come issues of quality and health. There is no doubt things in Koi will change with this disaster. Just as with a void in a pond's eco-system, any void in our Koi world will be filled,... hopefully the bacteria filling the void will be beneficial bacteria though.

                    Best Wishes,
                    Brady Brandwood

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                    • #11

                      Is culling going to be less selective?

                      Momotaro King of Southern Japan? Being there....maybe..he is a cool guy. I think it's close with Sakai Hiroshima still top dog in the South. But it brings up a good question. Is the culling going to be more open to keeping most of the offspring then it would have in the past? Meaning there will be more lower grade tosai to be pushed into the hobby? I mean this with most of or all of the breeders in Southern Japan.
                      The world sleeps as the chance to learn something new passes.

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                      • #12

                        Supply and demand, makes the world go round.

                        Interesting comments heard and read today about Niigata prices falling as so many buying dealers and hobbiests fled south much stock, even after the considerable loses taken by nature, remain.

                        I truly hope prices aren't manipulated by those unaffected by nature directly, supply and demand will surely and quickly level it out, I hope so anyway.

                        Remember though, Nishikigoi is a boom market, Asia taking more and more koi from Japanese shores, supply and demand from this source may well have as much, if not more, to do with market prices rising.
                        Andrew

                        "Gentlemen prefer ponds"

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                        • #13

                          Very Interesting?

                          There was mention of China and Taiwan stepping up production. Do any of these koi reach US and or UK soil to be sold to unexpecting newbies like myself? I do have a local representative that deals with Japanese breeders, but just wondering how China and Taiwan fit into the picture. I understand the Dollars and cents behind stepping up production but are there dealers who openly sell Chinese or Taiwanese Koi? In the US or UK? Do hobbiest purchase these koi? Quality/Health wise, how do these specimens measure-up to Japanese bred stock? Sorry so many questions...I just seem to keep digging holes for myself...Aloha all.

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                          • #14

                            I have seen Taiwan Koi and let's just say you wouldn't tell the difference until someone told you. The last 2 Koi-Bito's explain the Japanese worries and concerns. But they didn't expect the quake to bring it so soon. Would I worry?No, if each hobbyist has trusting relationship with their dealer then no worries.
                            The world sleeps as the chance to learn something new passes.

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                            • #15

                              i an a chinese koi fans,there's a koi-farm in beijing china ,it's owner is a japanese ,i have gone to this farm on october , i think it quality is as well as in japan ,but it's price is more cheap ,if anybody were intrested in it ,i can help you . sorrow for my poor english.

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